Reduced Data Temporary Softfork：为期一年的临时软分叉，限制链上任意数据（Ordinals / Runes / BRC-20）。它的激活机制没有失败状态，8 月强制窗口后必然"生效"——问题只是对谁生效。
The Reduced Data Temporary Softfork: a one-year soft fork restricting arbitrary on-chain data (Ordinals / Runes / BRC-20). Its deployment has no failure state — after the August mandatory window it "activates" no matter what. The only question is: for whom.
关键：55% 不是"生死线"，只是提前锁定通道——达不到也照样按高度激活（见下）。
Key point: 55% is not pass/fail — it is only the early lock-in path. Miss it and activation still happens by block height (see below).
本页的核心修正——直觉模型 vs 规范实际写的The core corrections: intuition vs what the spec actually says
直觉模型"支持率不到 55% 就不会生效"是错的。部署参数为 NO_TIMEOUT，规范里不存在 FAILED 状态：不管矿工信号多少，到指定块高必然按高度激活。这是 UASF 最后通牒，不是公投——也正是 Saylor 们反对的核心。
The intuitive model — "below 55% support it won't activate" — is wrong. The deployment is NO_TIMEOUT; the spec has no FAILED state: whatever miners signal, activation happens at the target height. It is a UASF ultimatum, not a referendum — exactly what Saylor and others object to.
信号机制只有一个 bit（版本字段 bit 4）：置位 = 支持，不置位 = 现状 = 计为不支持。不存在显式的反对标记。未信号在计票上一律计为不支持——但这只是计票事实；公司立场是另一回事，见下方阵营区块（无一手表态标 UNKNOWN）。
Signaling is a single bit (version bit 4): set = support, unset = status quo = counted as not supporting. There is no explicit "no" marker. Not signaling always counts against the threshold — but that is a tallying fact, not a corporate stance; see the stance section below (no primary statement → UNKNOWN).
强制窗口内不信号的块，只在 ~1% 的 Knots enforcing 节点眼里无效；对 Bitcoin Core（~99% 经济体量）完全有效——Core 里根本没有这个 deployment。大池不信号：块照出、奖励照拿、交易所照认，拒绝它的人只把自己隔离出去。
During the mandatory window, a non-signaling block is invalid only to the ~1% of enforcing Knots nodes. To Bitcoin Core (~99% of economic weight) it is fully valid — Core doesn't ship this deployment at all. A silent major pool keeps mining, keeps rewards, keeps exchange acceptance; the rejecters only isolate themselves.
同一个块，两种世界观——这就是"拒绝"威胁空转的原因Same block, two worldviews — why the "rejection" threat is toothless
规范写死的高度 · ETA 按最近实际出块速度折算Heights fixed by the spec · ETAs from recent actual block pace
当前信号块带 OCEAN coinbase tag（不等同其全量算力或公司立场）。OCEAN 默认 Stratum 端点 7/15 起改为信号；Foundry / AntPool / ViaBTC 无可核验一手表态（UNKNOWN）。
Current signaling blocks carry an OCEAN coinbase tag (≠ all of its hashrate, ≠ corporate stance). OCEAN's default Stratum endpoint signals since 7/15; Foundry / AntPool / ViaBTC have no verifiable primary statement (UNKNOWN).
Enforcing 节点（Knots BIP110）开始拒绝一切不信号 bit 4 的块。第一个不信号块出现（按当前算力分布，几分钟内）即为链分裂时刻——比 9 月的"激活"早得多。
Enforcing nodes (Knots BIP110) start rejecting every block that doesn't signal bit 4. The first non-signaling block (minutes away, at current hashrate) is the split — well before September's "activation."
规范写死：不晚于此高度锁定。没有 FAILED 状态（timeout = NO_TIMEOUT）——55% 矿工信号只是"提前锁定"通道，信号多少都不影响这一步。
Fixed by the spec: locked in no later than this height. No FAILED state (timeout = NO_TIMEOUT) — the 55% path is merely early lock-in; signaling levels cannot change this step.
7 条数据限制生效：新输出 ≤34 字节、OP_RETURN ≤83 字节、数据推送 ≤256 字节，针对 Ordinals / Runes / BRC-20。激活前的旧 UTXO 永久豁免。
Seven data limits take effect: new outputs ≤34 bytes, OP_RETURN ≤83 bytes, data pushes ≤256 bytes — aimed at Ordinals / Runes / BRC-20. Pre-activation UTXOs are grandfathered forever.
激活约一年后规则自动失效，写死在规范里，无需再投票。
Rules expire about one year after activation, hard-coded in the spec; no further vote needed.
注意：这是软分叉规则导致的永久链分裂，不是严格意义的硬分叉。RDTS 规则是主链规则的子集，所以不对称：RDTS 块对主链有效（无重放保护；理论上若其累计工作量反超，主链节点会自动 reorg 过去——这是 UASF 的博弈武器，1% 算力下是空炮），而主链对 RDTS 节点永久无效，反向吞并不存在。
Note: this is a permanent chain split caused by soft-fork rules, not a hard fork in the strict sense. RDTS rules are a subset of mainchain rules, so the split is asymmetric: RDTS blocks are valid to the mainchain (no replay protection; in theory, if RDTS ever led on cumulative work, mainchain nodes would auto-reorg onto it — the UASF's game-theory weapon, an empty cannon at 1% hashrate), while mainchain blocks are permanently invalid to RDTS nodes; absorption never runs the other way.
不改难度调整算法（DAA），少数链的死亡是算术，不是观点Without changing the DAA, the minority chain's death is arithmetic, not opinion
主观概率 · 2026-07-15 二次修订（60/35/4/1，尾部再压缩）· 可证伪条件：信号率突破 10% 或大池公开表态Subjective · 2nd revision 2026-07-15 (60/35/4/1, tails compressed) · falsifiers: signal rate above 10% or a major pool's public statement
8月7日窗口开启即在节点层分裂；活链还要求 enforcing 矿工真的以 17-33 小时/块持续出块直至自然消亡。注意：当前信号多来自 OCEAN 默认端点的"廉价信号"，信号 ≠ 愿意在无市场价的链上烧电——这个落差是本项从 90% 下调的主因。
Node-level divergence at the Aug-7 window is near-certain; a living branch additionally requires enforcing miners to keep mining at 17–33 h/block until the chain starves. Today's signals are mostly "cheap signaling" via OCEAN's default endpoint — signaling ≠ burning power on an unpriced chain. That gap is why this was revised down from 90%.
信号免费，enforce 昂贵。若窗口开启后没人持续在 RDTS 侧出块，Knots enforcing 节点冻结在块 961,631（或运营者换回非 enforcing 构建投降），"分裂"停留在节点视角分歧，从未成为一条活链。OCEAN 自己已宣布双链后端——主信号池也在对冲而非承诺。
Signaling is free; enforcing is costly. If nobody keeps mining the RDTS side after the window opens, enforcing Knots nodes freeze at block 961,631 (or operators swap to the non-enforcing build and capitulate). The "split" stays a node-view divergence and never becomes a living chain. OCEAN itself announced a dual-chain backend — even the main signaling pool is hedging, not committing.
"孤块压力"只在 enforcing 侧有分量时才成立——当前 ~1% 威慑不了任何大池；真实威胁还需要经济多数（交易所/钱包）跟进 enforcing，2017 BIP148 的剧本这次没有凑齐。距窗口三周，零迹象。
Orphan pressure only exists if the enforcing side has weight — at ~1% it deters no major pool. A real threat also needs the economic majority (exchanges/wallets) to enforce, and the 2017 BIP148 script hasn't assembled. Three weeks out: zero signs.
需要单个难度周期内 55% 块信号；当前差两个数量级且大池零动作，<1.5%。
Requires 55% of blocks in one retarget period; two orders of magnitude away with zero major-pool movement — below 1.5%.
计票上不信号即计为不支持——但立场是另一回事：无一手表态只标 UNKNOWN，不编造Not signaling counts as "no" in the tally — but stance is separate: no primary statement → UNKNOWN, nothing fabricated
提供 signaling / no-signal 双端点；默认 Stratum 端点 2026-07-15 起改为信号（不愿信号的矿工可切 no-signal 端点）。约 95% 算力走 DATUM，模板与信号仍由矿工自选；7/13 宣布若链分裂后端将双链独立跟随。官方公告 ↗
Runs both signaling and no-signal endpoints; the default Stratum endpoint signals as of 2026-07-15 (miners can switch to no-signal). ~95% of its hashrate uses DATUM, where each miner picks templates and signaling; on 7/13 it announced split-ready backends following both chains. Official announcement ↗
Chun Wang（@satofishi）："No way we'll signal BIP-110"——个人帖，非正式公司公告。原帖 ↗
Chun Wang (@satofishi): "No way we'll signal BIP-110" — a personal post, not an official company statement. Post ↗
7月11日 X 帖："there are 110 things more dangerous to Bitcoin than spam"——为 spam 之争动共识规则、让现行有效的付费交易失效，先例比 spam 危险。注意：他不是矿工，无算力投票权。
July 11 on X: "there are 110 things more dangerous to Bitcoin than spam" — changing consensus rules over a spam dispute and invalidating currently-valid fee-paying transactions is a worse precedent than the spam itself. Note: he is not a miner and holds no hashrate vote.
Back：提案与去中心化、无许可设计冲突，警告真实的链分裂风险。Lopp：55% 阈值太低，大幅加剧分裂概率。
Back: the proposal conflicts with Bitcoin's decentralized, permissionless design; warns of real split risk. Lopp: the 55% threshold is too low, sharply raising split odds.
截至 2026-07-15 检索截止，未找到可核验的一手表态。链上事实：未信号（计票上计为不支持）——但不据此推断公司立场，也不编造链接。
As of the 2026-07-15 search cutoff, no verifiable primary statement found. On-chain fact: not signaling (counts as "no" in the tally) — we do not infer corporate stance from that, nor fabricate links.
"BIP110 is activating regardless of miner signaling. Miners do not control the protocol." 援引 2017 BIP148 逼 SegWit 的先例——但当年有经济多数背书，这次没有。原帖 ↗
"BIP110 is activating regardless of miner signaling. Miners do not control the protocol." Cites the 2017 BIP148/SegWit precedent — which had economic-majority backing; this one doesn't. Post ↗
块高/难度实时来自 mempool.space，信号率来自 bip110monitor.com（5 分钟缓存）· 分析与概率为 2026-07-15 快照的主观判断，非投资建议 · 立场区块只列可核验一手表态，无一手链接不列 URL
Heights/difficulty live from mempool.space; signal rate from bip110monitor.com (5-min cache) · Analysis and probabilities are subjective as of the 2026-07-15 snapshot; not investment advice · The stance section lists only verifiable primary statements; no URL is fabricated.