BITCOIN · BIP-110 / RDTS · FIELD REPORT

分叉已经发生:现在观察哪条链能继续工作The split happened. Now watch which chain can keep working.

共同祖先 961,631 之后,canonical 与 RDTS enforcing branch 已各自产出区块。当前事实是 side branch 已实化;这不等于 canonical reorg,也不预先宣布永久结果。

After common ancestor 961,631, the canonical chain and the RDTS enforcing branch produced separate blocks. The observed fact is that a side branch exists; that is not a canonical reorg, and it does not settle the long-run outcome.

快照加载中…Loading snapshot… 上次观测 · STALELAST OBSERVATION · STALE canonical tip canonical tip RDTS tip RDTS tip 窗口 window
首屏现场图 · OBSERVED NOWHERO FIELD MAP · OBSERVED NOW

共同祖先 → 两条规则视图Common ancestor → two rule views

蓝色是当前 canonical;橙色是已产块的 RDTS enforcing branch。经济链判断尚未由本 API 直接证明。Blue is the current canonical view; orange is the produced RDTS enforcing branch. Economic-chain status is not directly proven by this API.

链上已实化 · 非预测REALIZED ON-CHAIN · NOT A FORECAST
共同祖先 · COMMON ANCESTORCOMMON ANCESTOR · 共同祖先961,63100000000000000000000…
961,632 mandatory signaling start 后,规则视图分叉Rule views diverged after 961,632 mandatory signaling start
CANONICALlatest observed · status unknownlatest observed · status unknown
LATEST OBSERVED
961,632AntPool · 无 signalno signal00000000000000000000…46ff24ba
live tiplive tip

观测:Observed: 等待 live fork status。Waiting for live fork status.

RDTS / ENFORCING规则分支 · latest observedrule branch · latest observed
LATEST OBSERVED
961,632OCEAN · signalsignal00000000000000000001…dbc16
961,633OCEAN · signalsignal00000000000000000001…d0968
···
最新观测latest observed

观测:Observed: 等待 live fork status。Waiting for live fork status.

latest observed · 规则视图分离latest observed · rule views separated · canonical 与 RDTS 的 live status 由 API 单独核验;不要把历史 side branch 当成永久结论。Canonical and RDTS live status are verified independently by the API; a historical side branch is not a permanent conclusion.
链高差 · GAPHEIGHT GAPcanonical − RDTScanonical − RDTS
当前窗口 · CURRENTCURRENT WINDOW
上一窗口 · PREVIOUSPREVIOUS WINDOW
RDTS 最后出块距今RDTS LAST BLOCK AGE

三种可证伪状态Three falsifiable states

把预测改成观察、反例与翻盘条件Replace pseudo-precision with observation, counter-case, and flip conditions

OBSERVED NOW · 现在now

side branch 已产块;canonical 状态以 live status 为准Side branch has blocks; canonical status comes from live status

block hash、pool、signal bit 是历史观测;best-chain 状态由 API 的逐块 status 复核。经济链判断 [INFERRED/MED]:canonical,基于主流矿池连续出块与未发现 RDTS 定价/采用证据。Block hash, pool, and signal bit are historical observations; best-chain status is checked by per-block API status. Economic-chain judgment [INFERRED/MED]: canonical, based on sustained mainstream-pool production and no observed RDTS pricing/adoption evidence.

BEAR CASE · 反例counter-case

DAA hard fork 改善 liveness,或 checkpoint 强制独立结算A DAA hard fork improves liveness, or a checkpoint forces independent settlement

若 DAA hard fork 改善 liveness,或 checkpoint 强制独立结算,当前分支判断需要重算;它们不会自动等同于改变 chain-work function,且都不是已观察事实。If a DAA hard fork improves liveness, or a checkpoint forces independent settlement, recompute the branch assessment; neither automatically means the chain-work function changed, and neither is observed now.

KILLER CONDITION · 致命条件flip condition

持续独立链 thesisA sustained independent-chain thesis

不是“历史上出现过 side branch”就算成立;若 RDTS 不能持续作为独立链产块、没有独立结算/采用,thesis 失效。反向翻盘须出现可持续的独立链证据,再重新检验 chainwork 与经济采用。A historical side branch is not enough; the thesis fails without sustained independent RDTS production and independent settlement/adoption. A reversal requires durable independent-chain evidence before reevaluating chainwork and adoption.

信号窗口:低计数不是“失败状态”Signal windows: a low count is not a “failed state”

961,632 前 signal 可触发 early lock-in;961,632–963,647 signal 同时是 enforcing branch 的 validity requirement。Before 961,632, signaling can trigger early lock-in; from 961,632–963,647 it is also the enforcing branch's validity requirement.

当前 difficulty period Current difficulty period

当前窗口计数Current-window count
上一窗口计数Previous-window count

机制:Mechanism: mandatory signaling、forced lock-in 与 rule activation 是不同节点;early lock-in 取决于 signal,enforcing branch 在当前窗口还要求 signal 才有效。Mandatory signaling, forced lock-in, and rule activation are distinct nodes; early lock-in depends on signaling, while the enforcing branch also requires signaling for validity in the current window.

高度时间线Height timeline

961,631共同祖先common ancestor

规则视图在下一块分开Rule views diverge at the next block

同一父块之后,canonical 产出 AntPool 无 signal 的 961,632;RDTS 产出 OCEAN signal 的 sibling。After the same parent, canonical produced AntPool's non-signaling 961,632 while RDTS produced the OCEAN-signaling sibling.

961,632mandatory signaling start · 已发生mandatory signaling start · happened

两条规则视图对 sibling 的接受关系分开The rule views diverge on sibling acceptance

legacy rules 接受两个 sibling,并按 cumulative chainwork 选择;BIP-110-enforcing view 接受 signal RDTS sibling,拒绝 no-signal canonical sibling——这正是 split。Legacy rules accept both siblings and choose by cumulative chainwork; the BIP-110-enforcing view accepts the signaling RDTS sibling and rejects the no-signal canonical sibling—the split itself.

963,648forced lock-in · RDTS branch-localforced lock-in · RDTS branch-local

在 enforcing branch 的高度空间进入强制锁定Forced lock-in on the enforcing branch's height space

距离只按 RDTS tip 计算;canonical 节点不实现这套 state machine,不能用 canonical crossing 代替。Distance is computed from the RDTS tip; canonical nodes do not implement this state machine, so canonical crossing is irrelevant.

965,664rule activation · RDTS branch-localrule activation · RDTS branch-local

enforcing branch 按自身高度激活规则Rules activate on the enforcing branch's own height

963,648 与 965,664 都以 RDTS tip 为基准;它们不是 canonical ETA,也不等于经济结果。Both 963,648 and 965,664 use the RDTS tip as their basis; they are not canonical ETAs and do not imply an economic outcome.

可复核的分叉事实Auditable fork facts

hash 是身份;pool / signal / best-chain 是观测字段Hash identifies a block; pool, signal, and best-chain are observed fields

共同祖先 · 961,631Common ancestor · 961,631
00000000000000000000807f9dc917442a67910426d79ebb2f8aa2149327ce8a
canonical 961,632canonical 961,632
AntPool · no signal · STATUS UNKNOWN00000000000000000000d1e01392faa65ceeaed307f0a3159144b84146ff24ba
RDTS 961,632RDTS 961,632
OCEAN · signal · STATUS UNKNOWN0000000000000000000169eb6f811ddbd0daf343af7b62180cdb13e7c78dbc16
RDTS 961,633RDTS 961,633
OCEAN · signal · STATUS UNKNOWN0000000000000000000139eda19858a84b2ed80cb6056ba8449f0792d13d0968
best-chain 检查Best-chain check
latest observed status:unknown。Latest observed status: unknown.

数据来源Data sources

信号窗口与历史周期Signal windows and historybip110monitor.com/api ↗
canonical tip / block hashcanonical tip / block hashmempool.space API ↗
canonical 交叉核验canonical cross-checkblockstream.info API ↗
RDTS tip / 最新区块RDTS tip / latest blockmempool.kilombino.com API ↗
BIP-110 规范BIP-110 specificationbips.dev/110 ↗

此次页面观测截至 API 返回的 asOf;canonical tip/hash 来自 mempool.space + Blockstream,信号来自 bip110monitor.com/api,RDTS tip/hash/time 来自 mempool.kilombino.com。部分成功时会标注 degraded;本页描述链上状态,不构成投资建议。

This page is dated by the API asOf. Canonical tip/hash come from mempool.space + Blockstream, signaling from bip110monitor.com/api, and RDTS tip/hash/time from mempool.kilombino.com. Partial upstream failure is shown as degraded; this is a chain-state report, not investment advice.