观测:Observed: 等待 live fork status。Waiting for live fork status.
分叉已经发生:现在观察哪条链能继续工作The split happened. Now watch which chain can keep working.
共同祖先 961,631 之后,canonical 与 RDTS enforcing branch 已各自产出区块。当前事实是 side branch 已实化;这不等于 canonical reorg,也不预先宣布永久结果。
After common ancestor 961,631, the canonical chain and the RDTS enforcing branch produced separate blocks. The observed fact is that a side branch exists; that is not a canonical reorg, and it does not settle the long-run outcome.
共同祖先 → 两条规则视图Common ancestor → two rule views
蓝色是当前 canonical;橙色是已产块的 RDTS enforcing branch。经济链判断尚未由本 API 直接证明。Blue is the current canonical view; orange is the produced RDTS enforcing branch. Economic-chain status is not directly proven by this API.
观测:Observed: 等待 live fork status。Waiting for live fork status.
三种可证伪状态Three falsifiable states
把预测改成观察、反例与翻盘条件Replace pseudo-precision with observation, counter-case, and flip conditions
side branch 已产块;canonical 状态以 live status 为准Side branch has blocks; canonical status comes from live status
block hash、pool、signal bit 是历史观测;best-chain 状态由 API 的逐块 status 复核。经济链判断 [INFERRED/MED]:canonical,基于主流矿池连续出块与未发现 RDTS 定价/采用证据。Block hash, pool, and signal bit are historical observations; best-chain status is checked by per-block API status. Economic-chain judgment [INFERRED/MED]: canonical, based on sustained mainstream-pool production and no observed RDTS pricing/adoption evidence.
DAA hard fork 改善 liveness,或 checkpoint 强制独立结算A DAA hard fork improves liveness, or a checkpoint forces independent settlement
若 DAA hard fork 改善 liveness,或 checkpoint 强制独立结算,当前分支判断需要重算;它们不会自动等同于改变 chain-work function,且都不是已观察事实。If a DAA hard fork improves liveness, or a checkpoint forces independent settlement, recompute the branch assessment; neither automatically means the chain-work function changed, and neither is observed now.
持续独立链 thesisA sustained independent-chain thesis
不是“历史上出现过 side branch”就算成立;若 RDTS 不能持续作为独立链产块、没有独立结算/采用,thesis 失效。反向翻盘须出现可持续的独立链证据,再重新检验 chainwork 与经济采用。A historical side branch is not enough; the thesis fails without sustained independent RDTS production and independent settlement/adoption. A reversal requires durable independent-chain evidence before reevaluating chainwork and adoption.
信号窗口:低计数不是“失败状态”Signal windows: a low count is not a “failed state”
961,632 前 signal 可触发 early lock-in;961,632–963,647 signal 同时是 enforcing branch 的 validity requirement。Before 961,632, signaling can trigger early lock-in; from 961,632–963,647 it is also the enforcing branch's validity requirement.
当前 difficulty period —Current difficulty period —
—机制:Mechanism: mandatory signaling、forced lock-in 与 rule activation 是不同节点;early lock-in 取决于 signal,enforcing branch 在当前窗口还要求 signal 才有效。Mandatory signaling, forced lock-in, and rule activation are distinct nodes; early lock-in depends on signaling, while the enforcing branch also requires signaling for validity in the current window.
高度时间线Height timeline
规则视图在下一块分开Rule views diverge at the next block
同一父块之后,canonical 产出 AntPool 无 signal 的 961,632;RDTS 产出 OCEAN signal 的 sibling。After the same parent, canonical produced AntPool's non-signaling 961,632 while RDTS produced the OCEAN-signaling sibling.
两条规则视图对 sibling 的接受关系分开The rule views diverge on sibling acceptance
legacy rules 接受两个 sibling,并按 cumulative chainwork 选择;BIP-110-enforcing view 接受 signal RDTS sibling,拒绝 no-signal canonical sibling——这正是 split。Legacy rules accept both siblings and choose by cumulative chainwork; the BIP-110-enforcing view accepts the signaling RDTS sibling and rejects the no-signal canonical sibling—the split itself.
在 enforcing branch 的高度空间进入强制锁定Forced lock-in on the enforcing branch's height space
距离只按 RDTS tip 计算;canonical 节点不实现这套 state machine,不能用 canonical crossing 代替。Distance is computed from the RDTS tip; canonical nodes do not implement this state machine, so canonical crossing is irrelevant.
enforcing branch 按自身高度激活规则Rules activate on the enforcing branch's own height
963,648 与 965,664 都以 RDTS tip 为基准;它们不是 canonical ETA,也不等于经济结果。Both 963,648 and 965,664 use the RDTS tip as their basis; they are not canonical ETAs and do not imply an economic outcome.
可复核的分叉事实Auditable fork facts
hash 是身份;pool / signal / best-chain 是观测字段Hash identifies a block; pool, signal, and best-chain are observed fields
00000000000000000000807f9dc917442a67910426d79ebb2f8aa2149327ce8a数据来源Data sources
此次页面观测截至 API 返回的 asOf;canonical tip/hash 来自 mempool.space + Blockstream,信号来自 bip110monitor.com/api,RDTS tip/hash/time 来自 mempool.kilombino.com。部分成功时会标注 degraded;本页描述链上状态,不构成投资建议。
This page is dated by the API asOf. Canonical tip/hash come from mempool.space + Blockstream, signaling from bip110monitor.com/api, and RDTS tip/hash/time from mempool.kilombino.com. Partial upstream failure is shown as degraded; this is a chain-state report, not investment advice.